Immediately, people claimed that the Abbott test is not accurate. Indeed there are a couple of studies that found this to be the case. However, most studies found the test to be highly accurate, over the normal FDA requirement of 95%. Still, let's use 80% accuracy. What that means is that 20% of those who present themselves for boarding will test negative and, in fact, be positive. Assuming no correlation, of those 20% who were false negatives on boarding, 20% will test negative again on disembarkation. That means that the combined false negative rate will be just 4%.
So, let's take the U.S. which has a current case rate of 0.44%. Assuming that those who present themselves for international travel have the same percent case rate as the general population, it means that the country of destination will be allowing entrance to a group with a case rate of 0.44% X 4% = 0.0176%. If the destination country has a case rate that is higher, they will actually be lowering their infection rate by letting them tourists in. For example, France has a reported case rate of 0.0889%. In other words, even with this simplistic analysis, it is clear that France should probably be allowing U.S. tourists into their country.
There are a number of reasons why this analysis is not reliable. The one negative one is that there may be a correlation between the boarding false negatives and disembarkation false negatives. In other words, while the false negative was a 20% probability upon boarding, it is possible that when those 20% are tested upon deplaning at their destination, more than 20% of them will be a false negative again.
While this is a concern, it is swamped by the many, many positives compared to the simplistic analysis. The first and obvious one is that those who are listed as active cases know they will test positive and, consequently, they will not fly. Asymptomatic cases and those people who were so recently infected that they do not yet show symptoms. While asymptomatic cases are undoubtedly a function of identified cases, it is generally not thought that they outnumber them. In other words, while .44% of the U.S. general population is identified as active cases, the population that would likely present themselves for foreign travel would almost surely be substantially less.
The current cases is highly suspect. The primary reason is that, especially in the U.S., many people who test positive never present themselves for testing upon clearing the virus. Because of that, they are registered as a active case and are never removed. We know this is the case because the U.S. current cases are equal to 45 days of infection. We know that, on average, clearance of the virus takes about 21 days. So, while the U.S. reports .44% active cases, it is likely no higher than .2%.
So, in total, we see that those people who present themselves for international travel have a low likelihood of having the virus and an even lower likelihood of passing both a boarding and a deplaning virus check. In nearly all countries where they may land, but doing so, they will actually reduce the infection rate. Not only are these border closures destroying the local hospitality industry, it is depressing international commerce. This is clearly 'mostly stupid'.
While this is a concern, it is swamped by the many, many positives compared to the simplistic analysis. The first and obvious one is that those who are listed as active cases know they will test positive and, consequently, they will not fly. Asymptomatic cases and those people who were so recently infected that they do not yet show symptoms. While asymptomatic cases are undoubtedly a function of identified cases, it is generally not thought that they outnumber them. In other words, while .44% of the U.S. general population is identified as active cases, the population that would likely present themselves for foreign travel would almost surely be substantially less.
The current cases is highly suspect. The primary reason is that, especially in the U.S., many people who test positive never present themselves for testing upon clearing the virus. Because of that, they are registered as a active case and are never removed. We know this is the case because the U.S. current cases are equal to 45 days of infection. We know that, on average, clearance of the virus takes about 21 days. So, while the U.S. reports .44% active cases, it is likely no higher than .2%.
So, in total, we see that those people who present themselves for international travel have a low likelihood of having the virus and an even lower likelihood of passing both a boarding and a deplaning virus check. In nearly all countries where they may land, but doing so, they will actually reduce the infection rate. Not only are these border closures destroying the local hospitality industry, it is depressing international commerce. This is clearly 'mostly stupid'.
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