Thailand Is Off the Table, For Now

Thailand, specifically Chiang Mai, has been one of two DN Meccas.  They didn't have easily procured long term visas, but they allowed 'visa runs' indefinitely.  Thailand has been known for rampant prostitution and poorly enforced drug trafficking.  So, it has tended to attract an unsavory tourist crowd.  As Thailand has modernized, it has decided to make foreign residency more difficult.  While Thailand is a active Monarchy, the population has generally favored this.

While it wants to discourage 1,000 USD per month DNs in Chiang Mai and low income sex tourists in Pattaya, it does not want to discourage the well heeled tourists who populate Phuket, Koh Samui, etc.  As the kind of tourist that Thailand wants to retain, I must say, I have lost interest.  There are several reasons for that.

First, both Vietnam and Malaysia have become very attractive alternatives.  Thailand has become 10% more expensive and while that isn't very much, it still needs to be explained why I would spend 10% more.  Both Ho Chi Minh city and Kuala Lumpur are becoming bustling international cities with large (and growing) middle class neighborhoods.  Da Nang is becoming a serious high buck vacation spot with top hotels, top beaches and all the modern amenities.  Penang is just as good as Phuket an cheaper.

Of course, Philippines has always been a competitor to Thailand, but because of better visa requirements, Thailand was preferred.  However, with the tightening of visa requirements in Thailand, the pendulum is swinging in favor of Philippines.  Cambodia, which has always been an also ran in the S. E. Asia tourist trade is stepping up its game and its popularity is growing.  It has always had Angkor Wat, but recently, its Southern beach communities are gaining popularity.

While Thailand wants to chase out its 1,000 USD/mo DNs, it definitely wants to attract its 10,000 USD/mo multinationalists.  So, it has rolled out a new 9 month visa program.  I would say that such people want the norm to be 180 days per year rather than the 90 days per half year that prevails currently.  So, this program fits that bill just fine.  However, when the restrictions are added to a generally higher cost of living, it just doesn't win the competition, especially with Vietnam and Malaysia.  

First, you need to quarantine for 14 days.  I had that in Belarus, but it was a self-quarantine with pretty loose rules.  In Thailand, you have the options of 15 luxury hotels for your quarantine, but they are all overpriced and in Bangkok.  Next, one must acquire 90 day accommodation, which, as is the norm in S.E. Asia, will result in a 1,000 to 2,000 USD prepayment.  There is also a requirement that 2,000 USD be placed in a Thai bank and proof of 100,000 USD insurance.

All of this means that Thailand will probably be the second S.E. Asian country to partially open after Cambodia.  They are limiting this to 1,200 issued visas per month.  I suspect that they will not reach that quota.  Why?  Because to us, 'Nomad Capitalists', countries represent a marketplace.  We decide our next location based upon cost of living, terms of entry, quality of life and, of course, climate.  Right now, my choices are between Durres, Albania, the Turkish Riviera and Cambodia, with Thailand entering with similar factors.

Of the three, Durres, Albania is the coolest over the winter.  Still, it is a zone 9 location, similar to Houston or New Orleans.  However, it has a low cost of living, no hassle entry and one year stays.  Alanya, Turkey, which is a very nice place and a zone 10 location.  However it only gives me 90 days and currently is spiking on COVID.  Thailand is a zone 11 or 12, but has much more difficult entry requirements.  It is, in theory, cheaper than Durres, but more expensive than Alanya.  However, it is high season and the pleasant parts like Koh Samui and Phuket are very expensive.

Of course, my decision criteria are different now than it will be when the end of the COVID pandemic expands my options.  However, that won't help Thailand because it does not compete with Da Nang, Kuala Lumpur, Hoi An or Penang.  Thailand was once high on the list for both DN's and multinationalists.  However, now they are chasing away the former and failing to impress the latter.

Based upon climate and geography, I would definitely place South East Asia on the top of the list for Winter residence.  That is true of Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand.  However, of all of them, Thailand has managed to move itself to the bottom of the list.